Coffee supplies forecast to recover this year

With the increased supplies, coffee exports are forecast to recover. World coffee exports over the next 12 months are forecast at 92.8 million bags, up 7.2 million bags from the previous season.

Most of the increase is attributed to the increase in coffee crops in Brazil, Vietnam and Peru, according to a report produced by the US Department of Agriculture. Brazil's production of coffee during the July 2006 to June 2007 marketing season is forecast at 44.8 million bags, up nearly 25 per cent over the previous year.

Since Brazil is the largest coffee producer, swings in Brazil's supplies of coffee account for a large portion of the change in the world total supplies of coffee.

Total coffee supplies in the current season are forecast at 146.9 million bags, up nearly seven per cent from the 2005/06 level.

Falls in production are forecast to occur in Ethiopia, and Honduras.

Countries are carefully controlling the supply of coffee they bring on to the world markets due to the lessons learned from the over supply that contributed to the sharp drop in world prices over the last decade, the report noted.

According to the US National Coffee Association's survey, consumers who drank coffee every day jumped to 56 per cent this year from 53 per cent in 2005 and 49 per cent in 2004. About 82 per cent of all US adults drink coffee, up from 80 per cent in 2005. Most of the increase in daily consumption was driven by consumers between 25 to 39 years of age.

Daily consumption among this group jumped to 47 per cent in 2006 from 41 per cent in 2005. Second to the 25-39 year olds was consumption among those 18-24 years of age. Daily consumption among this group soared to 31 per cent from 26 per cent in 2005 and from only 16 per cent in 2003.

US coffee stocks at the end of April 2006 totalled 5.2 million bags, down 76,002 bags from the 31 March 2006 level, the report stated.