The findings, taken from an industry study entitled “Global Aseptic Packaging” by Zenith International and Warrick Research, projects a sharp increase in aseptic pack numbers – estimated to rise 47 percent from 187bn in 2008 to 265bn by 2013.
Volumes are also likely to see buoyant growth, rising 31 percent from 86bn litres in 2008 to 113bn litres in 2013.
World market by pack type
In 2008, cartons overwhelmingly dominated the market, accounting for almost 75 percent of the total volume. However, the report predicts that over the review period cartons will lose some market share to PET bottles and pouches.
PET bottles accounted for about 12 percent of product volumes, and pouches about 8 percent last year, explained the study. In recent years, the use of both PET bottles and pouches has increased more rapidly, and this will continue so that by 2013 the market share of cartons will have been eroded to around 70 percent.
The main trend in beverages aseptically filled since 2003 has seen the increased use of PET bottles - replacing not only hot filled glass, but also hot filled PET and beverage cartons. This has been particularly strong in West Europe, said the report.
In terms of numbers of white milk packs, the Asian market already accounts for 56 percent of world use. This share is forecast to rise to nearly 70 percent by 2013.
Unit growth in family carton use has been at 3.4% per year, but slower growth of around 3.1% per year is forecast in the period 2009-2013. Portion packs will increase their share of the carton market.
The most rapidly growing application is for plastic pouches, and continued growth of around 15% per year is forecast to 2013. Much of this growth will be in China, although there will be an increased use of the pack type in other developing markets.
Volume breakdown
Volumes have grown annually by over 6 percent since 2003, with Asia achieving the fastest rise at over 13 percent a year. The prospects until 2013 are expected to be broadly similarly with annual growth projected to 5.6 percent. Unsurprisingly, expansion is forecast to be greatest in Asia with increases set to reach 11 percent a year.
In 2008, nearly 36bn litres of beverages were aseptically filled, with West Europe and Asia being the largest markets. Nearly 50% of beverages were hot filled, with nearly 10% using preservatives.
Trends
In 2008, white milk accounted for around 45 percent of aseptic package use, with beverage volume reaching over 40 percent. The period 2003-2008 was characterized by stronger volume growth in the beverage sector compared to usage for white milk.
However, this trend looks set to be reversed up until 2013 as UHT markets continue to expand robustly in developing countries. In contrast, the trend to aseptic filling of beverages in developed markets will be slower than in recent years - but still forecast to grow at over 5 percent per year in the period to 2013, to over 46 billion litres.
Going forward the report said demand is increasing for new aseptic fillers of bottles and plastic pots for added value dairy products, both ambient and chilled. It added that lower total costs of operation and increased system flexibility are the main requirements and benefits of aseptic packaging to filling companies.