MPI report says dairy to drive NZ exports in 2018

New Zealand's primary industry exports are forecast to rise 9.3% over the next year on the back of strong dairy prices and a return to normal productivity levels, according to Ministry for Primary Industries’ (MPI) latest quarterly update to its Situation and Outlook for Primary Industries.

"Exports reached NZ$38.1bn (US$26.5bn) in the year ended June 2017, an increase of 2.4% over the previous year, and NZ$7m (US$4.9m) higher than we previously estimated," Jarred Mair, director of sector policy for the MPI, said.

He noted dairy prices began recovering in the past year, which boosted exports, despite weather reducing production.

He said strong dairy prices would “substantially boost exports” next year to NZ$41.6bn (US$29bn).

According to the report, dairy accounted for 38% of the total export revenue for the year ending June 2017.

Butter gets better

After reaching NZ$14.6bn (US$10.2bn) for the year ended June 2017, New Zealand’s dairy export revenue is forecast to rise more than 18% to NZ$17.3bn for the year ending June 2018.

The report notes butter prices have continued to rise over the past three months, and MPI expects butter prices to continue rising for the rest of 2017, before falling slightly from January 2018 onwards.

It also points to growing numbers of bakeries in major Chinese cities driving increased demand for butter. As a result, New Zealand’s butter exports to China increased from NZ$355m (US$247m) in 2016 to NZ$443m (US$308m) in 2017.