The value of the global dairy market is currently $450bn, yet whilst the dairy market is expected to grow by 1.8% in the next decade, the fluid milk market is on the decline, Czarnikow said.
Tom Soutter, trader, from Czarnikow, who conducted the research, said, “It is interesting to note that during the pandemic lockdown which is in place in many countries, sales of traditional milk surged due to people stockpiling, the sales of oat milk have spiked even harder. Sales for each were up 32% and 476% respectively for the week ending March 14 in the United States.”
Long term, if young people continue to more readily adopt plant-based alternatives and stick with them, particularly in APAC where a firm base of consumers already exists, then the current short-term growth estimates of 12.4% CAGR seem justified, the company said.
Soutter said, “I think realistically there will be a slowing of the growth rate for plant-based alternatives over time. However, plant-based alternatives will continue to displace dairy in the fluid beverage sector.
“For plant-based alternatives to meaningfully substitute dairy commodities (powders, cheese, butter etc.) and the nutrition density of dairy – further breakthroughs will be required. Until then, there is the market space for dairy and plant-based alternatives to exist harmoniously.”