The Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board (AHDB) expects milk production to tick up modestly compared to its June forecast.
The body now estimates that additional 30 million liters of milk will be produced, bringing the UK milk production for the current season to 12.26bn liters, or 0.8% less than the previous season.
The slight forecast change is due to ‘marginally higher’ herd numbers, specifically youngstock.
AHDB senior analyst Katherine Jack has warned that the effects of rising energy prices, fuel and fertilizer are yet to be felt across the industry, and may become more evident as more fixed-price contracts expire.
“While high milk prices have been helping cover these costs, price increases are starting to slow down,” Jack stated. “Additionally, global dairy markets are facing some downwards pressure as demand responds to high prices. Sustained reductions in demand could make it harder for processors to maintain high prices over the coming months.”
Meanwhile, the UK has imported 11% more dairy products year on year, with import volumes increasing across all products except yogurt and buttermilk and cream, which declined by five and eight percent respectively.
Cheese and curd remain the most imported products at 32% of all UK dairy imports. Raw milk imports are also up 31% on 2021, with Ireland the primary source of UK milk imports. The total value of dairy imports has also increased, by 30%, and stands at £1.7bn (US$2m), with cheese and curd making up almost two thirds (59%) of the total import value. Yogurt and buttermilk accounted for 16% of the total.