Prior to stepping down from the 2024 presidential race, president Biden was trailing in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan, with Republican nominee Donald Trump enjoying a narrow lead in all three states.
But since vice-president Kamala Harris clinched the Democratic nomination, tables have turned.
According to The New York Times/Siena College poll covering August 5-9, the Democratic candidate is leading by 4% (50% to 46%) in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
And according to the same poll from August 8-15, Harris has made significant inroads in the Sun Belt and is now leading Trump in Arizona (50% to 45%) and North Carolina (49% to 47%) while also narrowing the former president’s lead in Nevada (a one percentage point difference) and Georgia (46% to 50%).
But what does that mean in big-picture terms? According to Lynn Vavreck, the Marvin Hoffenberg Professor of American Politics and Public Policy at UCLA, the race remains wide open at this stage.
“This election was expected to be a close one – and the recent swing toward Harris has tightened up the race,” she told us. “It looks as it should: like a very close contest.
Not only is this election likely to be close, but it is still pretty early in the campaign, she added. “The trends are important, but of course, November is a long way off.
“In a close election, literally anything could change the result in a state or overall.”
Looking at the Electoral College Race, where Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania continue to be a toss-up between the two major parties, Vavreck told us that the winner of the 2024 election “will more than likely need to win all of these states to become president”.
