More ice cream, less wine: How is climate impacting in-home consumption?

Conducted by Dutch banking multinational ING, the study looks at how food producers in Spain, Italy and Portugal are adapting to volatile weather patterns and how climate change is affecting in-home consumption of key foods produced in the region, including wine, beer, olive oil and ice cream.

According to ING senior sector economist, food & agri, Thijs Geijer, there are shifts in both the volume consumed and the length over which some foods are being consumed. For example, in Spain – where summer days have increased by two months, from 90 to 145, in the last 50 years – households have been eating more ice cream per capita, with the biggest growth happening in winter. They have also been switching from red wine (down 35% in the past 25 years) to beer (up 60%) increasingly, particularly during winter, according to the research.

“The reason behind this pattern is that red wine, in particular, is traditionally associated with colder seasons and, as winters become warmer, it gradually loses popularity in comparison to beer,“ Geijer explained in the report. “While we do find a clear link with temperatures, other factors are also influencing the trend. Within the beverage category, consumer preferences tend to shift over generations, and the introduction of more non-alcoholic beers is attracting new buyers to the category.”

For ice cream, in-home consumption increased in every month, but colder months show the strongest growth rates. For March and April, consumption rose at 2% CAGR between 1999 and 2023, according to the data. And in the fall, growth was even greater, at 2.7% CAGR for October and November. In comparison, year-round household ice cream consumption in Spain grew at 1.7%.

“That’s also why the relative share of June/July/August in total ice cream consumption in Spain decreased from 59% 20 years ago to 53% in 2023,” Geijer told us.

Data from the Spanish Ministry of Agriculture and Fisheries was used for the report – more on this here​.

What else drives in-home ice cream consumption?

While warmer weather is typically a factor in the rise of in-home ice cream consumption more generally, it’s just one part of the puzzle. Pricing, formats and portion sizes, flavor innovation and evolving dine-in consumer preferences also matter.

According to GfK NORM data cited by Unilever Food Solutions, around 65% of household ice cream consumption happens in front of a screen; and ice cream is the preferred dessert choice with takeaway food.

In the UK, 68% of consumers state they often eat ice cream with a dessert; 63% eat it when having an evening in; and 52% think retailers should offer ice cream as part of a dinner meal deal, according to Mintel’s Ice Cream – UK 2024 report. And around half (46%) of consumer state they often serve ice cream to guests, suggesting an opportunity for formats and flavors for social gatherings.

Seasonality still matters – with UK ice cream unit sales dropping more than 15% YoY in 2023 after the warm weather of the prior summer failed to materialize again – but the impact of climate volatility is a prompt for brands to make their portfolios more ‘climate-proof’, according to Geijer.