Optimism among US producers in October

The boost was driven by a rise in producers’ confidence as both the Future Expectations Index (up 30pts to 124) and the Current Conditions Index (reaching 95pts) improved.

For example, in October only 53% of producers expected challenging times next year, down from 73% in September.

Similarly, just 33% of producers expected concerns about the next 5 years, down from 48%. Fewer respondents said they expected worse financial conditions over the next year (23% in October vs 38% in September).

However, concerns about the economic conditions remained worse than last year and weaker than the 2015-16 base period.

Farmland Value Expectation indices also rose suggesting a level of optimism about the ag economy’s future: the short-term index up 25pts to 120 and the long-term index up 12pts to 159.

The survey, which was conducted October 14-18, 2024, drew comments about policy, with some respondents expressing concerns over potential policy changes impacting the ag economy, with regulation, the environment and taxes also featuring in the open-ended replies.

“Examining responses to the barometer’s individual questions helps us understand the producers’ shift toward a less pessimistic view of the U.S. agricultural economy,” said James Mintert, the barometer’s principal investigator and director of Purdue University’s Center for Commercial Agriculture.