Milk consumption falls (again)
Unsurprisingly given the long-term trend, fluid milk consumption in the US continued to slip in 2023, reaching for the first time a value of under 130 pounds per person (2023: 128lb; 2022: 130lb).
This means the average American drank 100lb (45L) less milk per year than in 1985. This also marks the 14th year in a row of declines in milk consumption, with US consumers drinking around 49lb/21.5L less milk and milk-based beverages than they did in 2010.
The data supports another finding - that the vast majority of US consumers don’t get enough dairy in their diet, largely due to decline in milk consumption offsetting increased intake of other dairy products.
According to the USDA Economic Research Service, 90% of US residents do not meet the federal dietary requirements for dairy consumption, with fewer Americans drinking milk as a beverage while managing more than tripling the amount of yogurt and cheese they consumed since 1970.
The research carried out by the ERS also showed that milk consumption had fallen across adults, teenagers and children alike, with the sharpest decline since the early 2010s recorded among teenagers.
As for consumption occasions, while milk and dairy beverages saw a decline, consumers continued to use around the same amount of milk in other beverages such as tea and coffee as well as in cereal.
Dairy companies have moved in recent years to increase the appeal of milk drinks by enhancing nutritional value (e.g. through increase in protein and decrease in fat and sugar), bolstering functionality (e.g. by including probiotics) and through regulation. Industry bodies have also lobbied for the inclusion of more types of milk in US schools, while a recent USDA-backed program aiming to increase consumption of organic dairy in US schools has been launched.
Even more cheese, please
After setting an all-time record in 2022, cheese consumption edged up again in 2023. Americans ate about 42.3lb (19.1kg) of cheese per capita, with increases in both American cheese and cottage cheese consumption offsetting a slight decrease in other cheese, such as continental.
Cottage cheese consumption (2023: 2.1lb; 2022: 1.9lb) reached the highest level in four years, likely on the back of improved shopper demand for low-fat, high-protein natural dairy products.
See also: Trends and opportunities in cottage cheese
Highest ever butter consumption
Butter enjoyed a record-setting year, with Americans getting through 6.5lb (around 3kg) of the stuff in 2023 (2022: 6.1lb). This is the highest amount of butter consumption since records began in 1975.
Impressively, US consumers managed to get through more butter in 2023 than they did during the pandemic (2020: 6.3lb; 2021: 6.4lb) when an increase in home-cooking was attributed to a similarly high demand for butter.
US butter supply remains robust year over year, even if it has been on the decline since May 2024. This is in turn putting pressure on prices, with grade AA butter trading for $5.495 (-1.87%) per ton according to CLAL survey data from November 27, 2024.
Ice cream consumption melts
Regular ice cream saw its worst performance since records began, with US consumers indulging in just 11.7lb (5.3kg) per person in 2023 (2022: 12.8lb). Non-fat and low-fat products remained flat YoY, suggesting appetite for more indulgent options could be waning.
The USDA says there has been a downward trend in frozen dairy product consumption as a whole, which is in line with a decline in consumption of caloric sweeteners and reflects shifting preference among consumers.
See also: Weight loss drugs may be melting US ice cream demand
WPC consumption accelerates
WPC factsheet
WPC34 and WPC80 are nutritionally similar in fat content, but differ in lactose and protein concentrations. WPC34 contains 34%-36% protein and 48%-52% lactose, while WPC80 contains 80%-82% protein and 4%-8% lactose. WPC34 provides similar concentration of lactose, protein and minerals as nonfat dry milk and can be used in comparable applications.
Source: USAID
Domestic demand for high-protein whey (coupled with improved sentiment from China) has lifted WPC prices to levels not seen since February 2023.
The outlook is also positive: according to the latest USDA AMS report covering November 25-29, 2024, “WPC 34% price range moved higher at the bottom of the range. The mostly price series moved higher at the bottom of the range. Contacts continue to share liquid whey continues to clear into WPC 80% and whey protein isolate production. Inventories remain slim, but spot trading is active.”