World coffee production on the rise, but stocks remain low
improved weather and better yields contributed to a larger coffee
crop in a number of producing countries, according to the latest
report from the US Department of Agricultures Foreign Agricultural
Service (USDA/FAS).
Published this month, the report estimates world coffee production in 2006/07 at129 million bags (60 kilograms or 132.276 pounds), up 5 million bags from the first forecast made in June, and up 15 million bags from the 2005/06 season.
At the same time, global coffee consumption has seen a modest increase over the past year, the report reveals.
This was set at 119 million bags for the 2005/06 season, up less than 1 percent from the preliminary 2004/05 level, and reflecting consumption of around 88 million bags in importing countries and 31 million bags in exporting countries.
"Although USDA does not maintain an official database for importing and consuming countries, world consumption is calculated using the information that is available. World consumption can be estimated based on net exports from producing countries, the change in major importers stock levels, plus consumption in producer countries. Exports from producing countries are assumed to be consumed in the importing countries, after adjusting for changes in the stock levels in the importing countries," said the USDA.
Higher production levels in the forthcoming growing season are expected to result in total coffee supply in producing countries of 151 million bags. This is 4 million bags higher than the June forecast and almost 13 million bags above the revised 2005/06 level.
Brazils coffee production in 2006/07 is now estimated at 46.5 million bags, up 1.7 million bags from the June 2006 forecast due to better than- expected dehusking yields in some growing areas and up 10.4 million bags from 2005/06.
Vietnams coffee crop for 2006/07 is expected to reach 16.5 million bags, up 19 percent from the June forecast, as better weather and growing conditions promote higher yields and newer cultivation comes to maturity.
Colombias coffee production in 2006/07 was increased 600,000 bags from the June forecast. Indonesias coffee production for 2006/07 was raised to 7.1 million bags, up 230,000 bags from the June forecast.
According to the latest report, world coffee exports in 2006/07 are forecast to increase by nearly 10 percent or 8.5 million bags from last years revised level.
Brazils total exports of coffee in 2006/07 are forecast at 27.0 million bags, a decrease of about 750,000 bags from the June forecast. However, that level represents a 10-percent rise from the 2005/06 level. Vietnams exports of coffee in 2006/07 are estimated at 15.3 million bags, up 2.4 million bags from 2005/06.
But despite higher production levels, world coffee stocks remain low.
At the end of 2006/07, these are forecast at 23 million bags, up from the low level of 2005/06. Ending stocks in 2005/06 are estimated at the historically low level of 19.8 million bags.
